The Lagos State Government has raised an alarm that 39,000 cases of the disease may be recorded in the state going by the number of cases already imported into the country.
Lagos State commissioner for health, Prof Akin Abayomi, who disclosed this at a press conference in Lagos on Friday said that the State Government was tracing 2,649 persons out of which 2,395 persons have been reached. He also said not less than 352 contacts have exited the 14 days of isolation period.
Reviewing how the State has fared so far in terms of numbers, Abayomi said: “Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos.”
He added that if everyone practices good social distancing, the figure could be limited to 13,000.
“If we add social distancing to active contact tracing, then we will be able to bend the curve further,” he said, noting that the figures were small, compared to outbreaks around the world.
“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasise to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practice social distancing.
“Looking at the same time frame from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos State is not seen anywhere near what Spain, Italy and Iran are showing.
Giving further details of the data already generated, he explained that “at two or three weeks of our index case, we are flat and at week four, we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran and Spain had more than 20,000 cases. So, we are doing something right in the state,” He said the state government would be interestingly watching the data over the next week.
“The total number of cases we have now in the centre is 37 and six remain in the ship. We will be finding ways to evacuate them. Also, 70 percent of the patients are male and 30 percent are female, one infant, and a young person under 30 years. We have above age 60 years too.
Again, 82 percent of the cases are imported and 14 percent are direct contact, while we have no idea where 2 percent contacted it from.
The fear that projections are higher than the official figures was based from the fact that many tests are not being done in Nigeria.
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